Accelerated Underwriting
Misclassification reasons driving mortality slippage in accelerated underwriting
Team discussion about the misclassification reasons driving mortality slippage in AUW over laptop in meeting room
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    Introduction

    Last year, Munich Re Life US published a study on accelerated underwriting monitoring which explored mortality slippage trends in industry programs and discussed best practices for life insurance companies to effectively monitor their accelerated underwriting (AUW) programs.

    In this follow-up article, we will dive into the most common reasons for misclassification as identified in carriers’ random holdout and post-issue audit data and explore opportunities to minimize these misclassifications and reduce AUW mortality slippage going forward.

    For purposes of this article, accelerated underwriting (AUW) is defined as the waiving of traditional underwriting requirements (e.g., fluids and medical exams) for a subset of applicants that meet favorable risk requirements in an otherwise fully underwritten (FUW) life insurance process.

    Carriers rely heavily on AUW random monitoring methods as leading indicators of future mortality experience. The two most common forms of random AUW monitoring include:

    • Random holdouts (RHO) - Cases in the AUW workflow that are randomly selected for additional underwriting evaluation, typically through the FUW process and before a final underwriting decision and/or offer is made.
    • Post-issue audits (PIA) - Audits conducted after an AUW decision and/or offer is made. Historically, they were made by reviewing an attending physician statement (APS), but more recently we are seeing a shift towards electronic health records (EHR). The risk class determination from this evaluation is considered a proxy for FUW.

    Both random holdouts and post-issue audits can provide valuable (but different) insights into emerging mortality experience in lieu of credible AUW mortality data.  As discovered in our last paper, RHOs and PIAs differ not only in their monitoring processes but also in their misclassification severities and resulting mortality slippage outcomes. Risk class misclassification refers to differing risk class outcomes between the AUW and RHO or PIA estimated risk class. Mortality slippage is defined as the implied mortality load relative to FUW mortality, due to risk class misclassification in the AUW process.  

    The remainder of this article will focus on the leading reasons for misclassification in holdouts and post-issue audits and opportunities to mitigate them. 

    Background/methodology

    At Munich Re Life US, we monitor accelerated underwriting (AUW) programs using random audit data provided by life insurance carriers, which allows us to estimate future mortality experience based on underwriting risk misclassification within the AUW decisioning process.  As of year-end 2023, we have collected 11 years’ worth of RHO and PIA monitoring data on over 33,000 lives across 30 AUW programs with the goal of capturing emerging mortality trends in the U.S. individual life accelerated underwriting market.1

    Our AUW monitoring study population is comprised of both pre- and post-issue auditing methods: 16 programs with RHO data and 18 AUW programs with PIA data (four programs contribute both types of monitoring data).  The study data represents a wide range of audit samples across programs, from 74 to over 5,000 randomly audited cases, with application dates between 2013 and 2023.

    Study findings by monitoring type

    In our prior paper, we highlighted the mortality slippage and misclassification severity differences between the two AUW monitoring types: random holdouts and post-issue audits. In particular, we noted that PIAs lead to higher average mortality slippage (15%) compared to average RHO slippage results (12%) based on the aggregate industry data in our study.  However, this seemed counterintuitive when looking at the overall accuracy rate resulting from PIAs (86%) compared to RHOs (77%). This led us to dive into the misclassification severities and reasons for misclassification in more detail.
    With the tremendous evolution of accelerated underwriting in the US life insurance industry over the past decade, most carriers now offer AUW products that mimic that of their FUW class structure. As a result, there is a wide range of misclassification severities within AUW monitoring results, ranging from one preferred class difference to decline assessments. Figure 1 demonstrates how the prevalence of these misclassification severities varies distinctly by monitoring method. 

    When comparing the breakouts, there are notable differences in RHO vs. PIA misclassification severities. Keep in mind that the vast majority of the historical PIA data reflected in this study comes from APS data.

    1. RHOs have more reverse misclassification (9x), contributing to more negative slippage, which lowers the overall RHO slippage results.
    2. RHOs have more low-severity misclassifications of 1-2 preferred class differences compared to PIA audits. These smaller misclassifications have less of an impact on overall slippage.
    3. RHOs are more effective at uncovering tobacco misrepresentation versus PIAs.
    4. PIAs have a higher prevalence of severely misclassified cases (rated, postpones, and declines) compared to RHOs, which are most impactful on mortality slippage.

    Why do these two monitoring methods have such a different makeup of misclassified cases? This can be explained by the monitoring process itself, as well as the additional data being evaluated in the audit process.

    1. Monitoring process: RHOs are conducted pre-issue and once selected, an applicant must be willing to participate in the paramedical exam and insurance labs. If the applicant is knowingly misrepresenting their health status, it is more likely that they will withdraw from the process before a severe misrepresentation can be discovered. PIAs are typically designed to look for misrepresentation or reasons to adversely change an underwriting assessment, whereas RHOs are intended to target the FUW risk class decision, explaining the higher prevalence of low severity and reverse misclassifications.
    2. Data being evaluated: APS audit assessments are intended to serve as a proxy for FUW, but are not an apples-to-apples comparison with the traditional insurance labs and paramedical exams used in RHOs. Medical records can uncover different conditions, as evidenced by the provided reasons for misclassification.
    Table 1 shows a comparison of the common misclassification reasons in random holdout versus post-issue audit results for a subset of the misclassified cases in our monitoring study where an explanation was provided. The top 10 reasons are ranked in order of frequency, with the percentages representing the prevalence of these contributing factors as a percentage of all misclassified cases within each monitoring type (excluding reasons driving reverse misclassifications).2
    • Build/BMI misclassification is the leading misclassification reason and is equally prevalent in both monitoring methods. Despite being the most common, it is more likely to lead to many of the preferred classification differences and not have a significant impact on overall slippage on a per-case basis. 
    • Tobacco use is the second leading misclassification reason uncovered in RHOs, and the fourth leading reason in PIAs. Routine cotinine testing in insurance labs (although not foolproof) is more effective at uncovering tobacco use than relying on an APS, as clinical labs do not routinely test for cotinine and many physicians do not document (or may be unaware of) their patients’ tobacco use. As demonstrated in our prior study, tobacco misrepresentation has been trending up over time as fluidless underwriting programs gain awareness in the industry.
    • Cholesterol/lipids is another leading reason that contributes to primarily 1-2 class differences and little to no severe misclassification on its own. These are uncovered in random holdouts at twice the rate of post-issue audits, as recent clinical laboratory results are not always available in APS records depending on the specialty of the physician listed in the application.
    • Blood pressure is a common misclassification reason in both monitoring types that contributes to a wide range of severities from preferred class differences to declines. Contrary to cholesterol, high blood pressure is uncovered in PIAs more frequently than RHOs, likely stemming from the presence of elevated blood pressure readings as well as hypertension diagnoses indicated in the medical records.
    • Undisclosed medical history and substance use are more often uncovered in medical records (e.g., EHRs) than in insurance labs. The rise in substance abuse deaths among college-educated individuals is of particular concern to the life insurance industry. We most frequently see undisclosed medical history and substance abuse attributed to decline or postpone audit decisions.

    While the majority of the historical post-issue audit data in our study is based on APS data, we are seeing more carriers adopt electronic health records (EHRs) in both front and back-end underwriting. Although APS and EHR records can contain similar information, an APS is typically a targeted query to a specific physician while EHR queries return data from any medical provider(s) participating in the insurance use case. Therefore, EHRs may uncover additional medical history from other healthcare providers not disclosed by the applicant. Given the undisclosed medical history seen to date in post-issue audit results, the obvious question becomes, “Why not eliminate AUW slippage altogether by using the same tools for underwriting applicants on the front end?”  While the lag time in receiving APSs defeats a primary purpose of accelerated underwriting – speed to issue – EHRs can now provide carriers with similar comprehensive medical information on their applicants in near real time.

    Munich Re Life US recently completed a series of comprehensive EHR retro studies that evaluated the protective and operational value of EHRs in various underwriting scenarios, including an accelerated underwriting environment. These studies included a sample of over 800 underwriting files consisting of business from multiple carriers across diverse distribution channels. We tasked underwriters with making risk assessments based on varying levels of underwriting evidence in the file and documented any differences in assessments when an EHR was added. We found that adding EHRs to AUW at the point of sale uncovered additional medical information, enabling more accurate risk class assessments and preventing potential mortality slippage. In fact, the results suggest that it may be possible to get back to fully underwritten mortality by adding EHRs to accelerated underwriting evidence or replacing fluids and parameds with EHRs in fully underwritten environments.  When factoring in the average cost of EHRs per policy while accounting for the cost of obtaining multiple EHR data sources per life, the protective value of the EHRs far outweighed the cost and provided a clear net positive financial impact.

    In addition, we found that EHRs uncovered similar medical histories as APSs; however, the prevalence and impact differed. In particular, build/weight changes were the top reason for variances in risk class assessments, followed by medical histories, including diabetes, and substance use. Similar to what we observe with APSs, medical histories found in EHRs had a higher impact on mortality savings. On the other hand, while they were lower in prevalence, EHR lab results often indicated a higher mortality impact than what we typically see in PIA reviews with APSs. EHRs also have the potential to uncover additional tobacco misrepresentation, as we observed that 76% of EHRs in the study contain tobacco use details.

    On top of providing protective value, our retro study found that EHRs may add operational value by driving a net increase in the number of risk class decisions that can be made without requesting traditional underwriting evidence, as demonstrated in Table 2.

    These results indicate that for AUW programs, incorporating EHRs at the point of sale can increase accelerated decision rates (from 68% to 79%) by uncovering both additional good risks and declinable risks that previously would have been undetermined (refer to underwriter) cases.  At the same time, the study showed that EHRs could add protective value by identifying declines (4%) and referring to an underwriter (8%) cases that would have previously received an AUW offer.  Combining these operational results with the additional protective value, it is clear that EHRs can play a vital role in minimizing mortality slippage in AUW programs without reducing the number of accelerated insurance offers.

    Summary

    Awareness of the reasons for misclassification in AUW programs and how these can vary by monitoring methods is an important step in improving the AUW process.  Life insurance carriers are encouraged to work in cross-functional teams across their organizations and to leverage underwriter expertise to help minimize these gaps going forward. 

    As AUW mortality slippage continues to be a growing concern for carriers, adding additional tools to front-end underwriting, such as EHRs, may help mitigate risk misclassification without reducing the number of accelerated insurance offers.

    Munich Re has considerable expertise and experience with accelerated underwriting risk assessment tools, and we are happy to support carrier efforts to improve their evolving AUW programs. 

    1Munich Re is committed to its legal and contractual obligations for the responsible handling of data. 2Top reasons driving reverse misclassifications include credit-based scoring tools and BMI/Build.
    Contact the authors
    Lisa Seeman
    Lisa Seeman
    2nd Vice President & Actuary, Underwriting Risk Assessment & Research
    Munich Re Life US
    Katy Herzog
    Katy Herzog
    AVP, UW Pricing and Client Support
    Munich Re Life US

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