As the United Census Bureau noted, the pandemic caused the largest spike in mortality in 100 years¹. Before 2020, U.S. population deaths had been increasing at a slow and steady pace; mortality was predictable and followed reliable seasonal trends. Life insurance carriers focus on the age-adjusted mortality trends of their insured population, which had been improving in the pre-pandemic period. However, even insured populations have been materially impacted by COVID-19, with the most significant impact on group life portfolios occurring in the third quarter of 2021².  Mortality results have been evolving rapidly, so group life carriers should continue analyzing current trends in order to develop an accurate projection of emerging mortality.

At Munich Re, we understand the challenges carriers face when assessing risk, and the last three years have been exceptionally challenging. At the onset of the pandemic, our mortality and morbidity experts quickly recognized the unprecedented environment we were entering. They urgently assembled a team of actuaries, biomedical researchers, and medical doctors charged with developing a deep and broad view of factors impacting mortality.  The team developed a multitude of projections as carriers sought our expertise.  The group continues to provide projections incorporating a comprehensive set of factors such as missed health screenings, deaths of despair, and alcohol & substance abuse. As clients have navigated the challenges that came with the pandemic, resulting in poor mortality experience, many relied on and continued to seek the expertise delivered by this team of experts for providing one of the most accurate assessments of mortality risk available today. 

Munich Re’s mortality projections have proven to be more accurate than the publicly available U.S. mortality forecasts, such as common government-based agencies or the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Our 2022 projection, for example, moved by only 1% between our February and June snapshots even after reflecting the five additional months of actual COVID-19 deaths.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Through our collaboration with Group Life clients throughout the pandemic, we’ve shared insights on mortality drivers and developed ranges of future mortality projections with superior accuracy:​

In 2021 – Our COVID mortality projections for the third quarter, fourth quarter, and 2022 were more accurate than many other projections for these waves of the pandemic³.​

In 2022 – Our FY2022 COVID mortality projection moved only 1% between the February and June snapshots.​

_____________________________________________________________________________________