Aviation Trends 2025

Definition

Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is unpredictable turbulence occurring in clear skies, typically at high altitudes near jet streams, caused by atmospheric wind shear and posing a significant risk to aircraft and passenger safety.

Clear-air turbulence: A growing concern for aviation

Imagine a smooth, seemingly uneventful transatlantic flight suddenly jolted by violent shaking. Passengers grip their armrests, drinks spill and overhead compartments rattle. This isn’t a storm, it’s clear-air turbulence (CAT), an invisible threat hidden in the upper atmosphere. Unlike turbulence associated with thunderstorms, CAT is not visible to pilots or weather radar, making it a particularly insidious challenge. It forms in clear air, often near jet streams where strong wind shears create unstable air masses. In May 2024, a flight from London to Singapore encountered severe CAT over the Pacific, tragically resulting in one fatality and injuring dozens of crew members and passengers. This incident serves as a stark reminder of the very real dangers this phenomenon presents. Such incidents underscore the need for better CAT prediction and mitigation strategies.

One of the most concerning aspects of CAT is its unpredictability. While meteorologists can forecast areas of potential turbulence, pinpointing its exact location and intensity remains elusive. This difficulty stems from the multi-scale nature of turbulence, making comprehensive forecasting a complex task.

Climate change is exacerbating the problem too. Studies indicate a significant increase in CAT frequency and intensity over the past four decades, particularly over busy airspaces like the North Atlantic. Projections suggest this trend will continue, with some areas potentially seeing a doubling of severe CAT occurrences by 2050. This growing challenge affects airlines by impacting safety, operational efficiency, passenger comfort and ultimately profitability. Increased turbulence means more fuel consumption due to altered flight paths, higher maintenance costs from structural stress on aircraft, and potential legal costs associated with passenger injuries.

The impact of CAT on the aviation insurance industry

The unpredictability of CAT makes it challenging to incorporate it into risk models. While most turbulence is harmless, the severity of CAT can vary. Insurers may use historical data and meteorological forecasts to assess the risk of turbulence incidents. The increasing prevalence of CAT therefore necessitates a deeper understanding of its characteristics and implications:

• Escalating threat:
  CAT frequency and severity are on the rise due to climate change, demanding proactive mitigation strategies from the aviation industry. This includes investment in new technologies and revised operational procedures.
• Global hotspots:
  Certain regions, including the North Atlantic, North Pacific and East Asia, are particularly prone to CAT, requiring heightened vigilance. Understanding the specific atmospheric conditions in these areas is crucial for risk assessment and flight planning.
• Altitude dependency:
  CAT is more prevalent in winter and more common at higher altitudes, typically between 10,000 and 12,000 meters, where jet streams typically occur. This influences flight planning and the potential for aircraft to adjust altitude to avoid turbulence.
• Jet stream dynamics:
  Understanding the complex relationship between jet streams and CAT formation is crucial for improved forecasting. Research into jet stream behavior and its interaction with other atmospheric factors is ongoing.
• Diagnostic limitations:
  Current CAT detection methods face limitations, highlighting the need for more advanced and accurate diagnostic tools. This includes exploring new technologies like LiDAR, a 3D laser scanning technology measuring precise distances and movement in an environment, and improving the interpretation of existing weather data.

Drivers, triggers and consequences

The primary driver of CAT is wind shear, particularly within jet streams. These fast-flowing air currents create instability in the atmosphere, leading to the formation of turbulent eddies. Variations in wind speed and direction over short distances create shearing forces that can generate turbulence. Mountain waves and convective activity can also trigger CAT, though jet stream-related turbulence is the most common type affecting commercial aviation. Mountain waves occur when air flows over mountainous terrain, creating oscillations that can propagate upwards into the jet stream region.

The consequences of CAT can range from minor inconvenience to serious safety incidents. In-flight injuries due to unexpected turbulence are especially a concern in certain regions of the world. Research consistently identifies increasing historical moderate or greater (MOG) CAT trends over East Asia, the Northern Pacific and the Northern Atlantic, although the most affected region and magnitude of change are debated. Operators usually advise passengers to keep their seat belts fastened at all times while seated. During flights passengers may need to take occasional comfort breaks where CAT, as well as any sudden movement of the aircraft, can pose an increased safety risk. Some airlines have started taking proactive measures to prevent passengers from potential injuries caused by turbulence. One recent example is an airline, which announced that starting in August 2024, they will no longer serve ramyeon instant noodle soups in economy class to prevent burn accidents from hot water. The airline explained that this decision was made in response to the increasing trend of turbulence.

The complexity of CAT formation and the limitations of current forecasting models underscore the need for ongoing research and development. While we understand the fundamental drivers of CAT, accurately predicting its occurrence in time and space remains a significant hurdle. Current diagnostic tools, while improving, are still limited in their ability to capture the intricate interplays of atmospheric factors that contribute to turbulence. Furthermore, the uncertainties surrounding future climate change scenarios add another layer of complexity to long-term CAT projections.

Addressing uncertainties and limitations is crucial for enhancing aviation safety and efficiency. Moving forward, we must prioritize:

1. Enhanced diagnostic indices:
   Further investigation into individual turbulence diagnostic indices and CAT intensity levels is necessary. Exploring the use of weighted averages of multiple diagnostics, calibrated for specific geographical areas, may provide more accurate insights.
2. Next-generation climate models:
   Utilizing the latest models, designed to better capture the complexities of atmospheric dynamics, may yield more accurate and reliable long-term CAT forecasts.
3. Expanded altitude range:
   Extending the range of altitudes under consideration to below 10,000 meters and above 12,000 meters can provide a more complete understanding of CAT trends and their impact on aviation across a wider range of flight operations.

By addressing these key areas, we can improve our understanding of CAT trends, develop more accurate predictions, and ultimately inform strategic decision-making in the aviation and insurance sectors, paving the way for safer skies.

Opportunities and challenges

The challenges posed by CAT also present opportunities for innovation and improvement within the aviation industry. Investing in research and development of advanced detection technologies, such as LiDAR-based systems that can remotely sense turbulence, is crucial. Improved forecasting models, incorporating real-time data from aircraft and weather satellites, can provide pilots with more accurate and timely warnings. AI and machine learning algorithms can analyze vast datasets to identify patterns and improve predictive capabilities. Collaboration between airlines, manufacturers, research institutions and meteorological agencies is essential to accelerate the development and implementation of these technologies. One example of such collaboration is the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) “Turbulence Aware” platform. This initiative aims to drive a data-driven approach to turbulence mitigation by collecting and sharing real-time, automated turbulence reports from participating airlines. By pooling data on actual turbulence encounters, pilots gain access to more accurate and timely information, enabling them to make informed decisions to avoid or mitigate the impact of CAT. IATA’s ongoing efforts to expand participation in “Turbulence Aware” highlight the potential of industry-wide collaboration to enhance aviation safety and efficiency.

The unpredictable nature of CAT poses substantial risk management challenges to the aviation industry, particularly for airlines and their insurers. From an insurer’s perspective, we can observe a clear trend towards a higher frequency of reported turbulence incidents, leading to more costly liability events. Insurers are challenged to properly reflect this development into their risk assessments.

Outlook

Remember that smooth transatlantic flight we imagined? Clear-air turbulence can disrupt that tranquility unexpectedly. The occurrence aboard the already mentioned flight from London to Singapore, where a seemingly routine flight was violently disrupted by CAT, tragically acts as a reminder of the potentially harmful consequences of this invisible threat. This leaves the aviation industry at a pivotal moment regarding weather turbulence management. As climate change continues to influence atmospheric conditions, the need for robust turbulence forecasting and risk mitigation strategies will only grow. By leveraging technological advancements and fostering collaboration among stakeholders, the industry can enhance safety, improve operational efficiency, and ultimately provide a better flying experience for passengers. Continued research and investment in turbulence prediction technologies will be crucial in navigating the challenges posed by an increasingly turbulent atmosphere.

Definition

Cybersecurity in aviation safeguards critical systems like aircraft navigation, airport operations and passenger data. Increasing digitalization expands vulnerabilities, making robust cybersecurity essential for industry resilience.

Context within the aviation industry

Airports, airlines and even air traffic control are all ireliant on computers and networks. This interconnectedness, while making operations more efficient, also opens up a whole new world of exposures. Take, for example, the summer of 2024 when a US airport faced a significant cyberattack that disrupted passenger information displays and baggage handling systems. The incident led to prolonged waiting times, widespread delays and flight cancellations, which ultimately led to financial losses and reputational damage to the airport. This incident highlights the growing cyber threats facing the increasingly interrelated aviation industry. While digital technology enhances efficiency, it also creates new vulnerabilities for malicious actors seeking financial or political gain. Systems interfacing with external networks, connected to the internet or lacking physical isolation are particularly vulnerable. This includes flight operations software, maintenance systems and passenger information networks. Cyber threats, whether driven by financial or political motives, present a genuine threat, including the theft or manipulation of data and disruption of critical services.

Beyond malicious attacks, systemic vulnerabilities exacerbate risks. The January 2023 Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) system failure, caused by a corrupted database file, grounded US flights and caused widespread disruption, resulting in nearly 1,300 flights being affected and 10,000 delays across the entire US aviation network. While not a cyberattack, it exposed the fragility of outdated systems and the need for robust backups. Similarly, in December 2022, an airline’s aging crew scheduling system struggled to cope with weather-related disruptions, leading to mass cancellations (over 16,700 flights cancelled in less than two weeks). These incidents underscore the need for modernized, resilient infrastructure.

Key insights – What’s at stake?

The aviation industry’s increasing reliance on digital technologies has created a complex cybersecurity landscape and a prime focus for cybercriminals. Disrupting air travel, stealing sensitive data, causing economic chaos – the potential impact is huge, ultimately even putting safety at risk. Here’s what makes aviation particularly vulnerable:

• High-value target: 
  Aviation’s critical role makes it a prime target for cybercriminals implementing traditional threats such as hacking and ransomware attacks seeking to disrupt operations and operational systems, steal passenger data, or cause economic instability.
• Expanding attack surface: 
  Interconnectedness through cloud-based systems, IoT devices and the digital transformation of airport operations creates more entry points for attacks. Modern vulnerabilities, such as software supply chain attacks or the exploitation of poorly secured IoT endpoints (e.g. baggage systems, smart gates), pose risks that are harder to predict and mitigate.
• Rising attack frequency: 
  Geopolitical tensions and increased reliance on digital technologies drive up the number of attempted cyberattacks.
• Systemic vulnerabilities: 
  Legacy systems such as air traffic management systems and passenger reservation platforms designed before modern cybersecurity threats compound the risks.

Drivers, triggers and consequences

The rapid digital transformation of the aviation industry, while offering significant advantages, has also dramatically expanded the cyber threat landscape. More connections mean more opportunities for increasingly sophisticated hackers to get in. These hackers are driven by a range of motivations, from financial gain (think ransomware and data breaches targeting valuable passenger information) to political disruption, especially in times of geopolitical tensions. And with the rise of AI, attackers have even more powerful tools at their disposal, like automated phishing campaigns and more sophisticated malware. A small software glitch, a misconfigured system or even human error can lead to a network-wide outage, grounding flights and compromising sensitive data. The 2024 airport cyberattack and the 2023 NOTAM system failure both highlight the vulnerability of these aviation systems and the potential for widespread disruption. As the Munich Re Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2024 highlights, a significant portion of organizations feel inadequately prepared for this evolving threat environment.

Opportunities and challenges

This evolving threat landscape presents both significant challenges and opportunities for the aviation industry. As companies continue to modernize legacy systems, the need for robust security during the integration of new technologies remains crucial. If not managed carefully, this implementation runs the risk of creating new vulnerabilities that can be exploited. The increasing threat of GPS spoofing, particularly in conflict zones, requires the development and implementation of sophisticated detection and mitigation systems and reliable backup navigation.

Authorities like the European Union Aviation Safety Agency and the International Air Transport Association are already working on strategies to enhance the resilience of systems based on the Global Navigation Satellite System, developing better reporting systems and sharing information through platforms like Europe’s Occurrence Reporting scheme, EASA’s Data4Safety program, IATA’s Flight Data Exchange and Eurocontrol’s Voluntary ATM (Air Traffic Management) Incident Reporting. Aircraft manufacturers are also getting involved, providing guidance to operators on how to manage threats like spoofing and jamming. Addressing the human element is also vital. Comprehensive cybersecurity training and awareness programs, along with regular audits and monitoring, can help reduce the risk of human error.

Furthermore, because there is a real shortage of IT specialists with aviation cybersecurity expertise, there is now the need to invest in training and recruitment in order to build a more specialized workforce. Additionally, the growing complexity and interconnectedness of aviation systems demands a focus on robust system redundancy and backup procedures to ensure operational continuity. By proactively addressing these challenges, the aviation industry can strengthen its overall cybersecurity posture, enhance its resilience and safeguard its critical role in global transportation.

An insurance perspective

The aviation industry faces a unique set of cyber insurance needs due to the diverse nature of its operations, which encompass airlines, airports, air traffic control, manufacturers and suppliers. These entities face varying degrees of cyber risk and different types of insurance to address these varying needs. Cyber insurance generally offers solutions for financial losses resulting from system failures (both malicious and non-malicious), including business interruption and the costs of responding to an attack. For example, if a software update goes wrong and knocks out a system, similar to what happened with the outage related to a cybersecurity technology company, where a faulty software update disrupted numerous systems, cyber insurance can help cover the costs.

However, a cyber policy typically doesn’t include coverage for physical damage or bodily injury. Coverage for these types of losses, including those arising from the failure of air traffic control systems or product liability related to aircraft operation, typically falls under the aviation insurance market. This market covers perils like damage to aircraft or injuries to passengers resulting from a cyber incident, whether it is a malicious attack or just a system failure – with non-malicious events covered under “All Risk” policies and malicious attacks covered under a combination of “All Risk” and Aviation War policies.

The increasing prevalence of cyber threats and the evolving regulatory landscape are driving growth in both cyber and aviation insurance markets, highlighting the importance of insurance as a key component of comprehensive risk management in the aviation sector.

Outlook

The disruption caused by the 2024 US airport cyberattack serves as a stark reminder of the escalating cyber threats facing aviation. While the industry benefits from digital advancements, it must proactively address the expanding attack surface and evolving tactics of malicious actors. By embracing new technologies, modernizing systems, investing in training and leveraging AI for enhanced security, the aviation industry can strengthen its resilience and safeguard its critical role in global transportation. A multi-layered approach that combines technological solutions with human vigilance is essential for navigating the complex cybersecurity landscape and ensuring the continued safety and efficiency of air travel.

Definition

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is a fossil-free substitute for conventional kerosene. Chemically almost identical, it aims to reduce CO₂ emissions because it is derived from alternative sources such as CO₂ itself, cooking oils, vegetable oils, waste and agricultural by-products. SAF is typically blended with conventional non-renewable jet fuels in order to maintain required aromatic levels. Increasing the amount of SAF used will be essential for the aviation industry’s 2050 climate target.

Decarbonizing the skies: Sustainable fuel and its impact on the aviation industry

Imagine a commercial airliner soaring through the sky, leaving behind significantly fewer heat-trapping emissions and a substantially reduced environmental footprint. This is not a futuristic fantasy, but a tangible step towards decarbonizing aviation. This vision is taking form thanks to groundbreaking advancements in SAF technology. The 2024 ECLIF3 project – a collaborative effort between Airbus, Rolls-Royce, the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and SAF producer Neste – conducted the world’s first in-flight study using 100% SAF in both engines of an Airbus A350.

The results were striking: a significant reduction in soot particles by at least 26%. This study demonstrates the power of SAF to not only reduce lifecycle CO₂ emissions but also mitigate non-CO₂ effects, paving the way for a more climate-compatible aviation industry. This shift towards sustainable practices presents both opportunities and challenges for the aviation sector.

The urgent need for SAF

The aviation industry currently accounts for 2.3% of global CO₂ emissions. By 2050, it is aiming for net-zero emissions – the shared goal of the 77th Annual General Meeting of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in 2021 and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in 2022. The EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation initiative names SAF as a key instrument for this. The initiative sets requirements for aviation fuel suppliers and stipulates a gradual increase in the proportion of SAF blended with conventional aviation fuel supplied at EU airports. ReFuelEU Aviation is thus an important component of the EU strategy to make flying more sustainable and achieve long-term environmental goals. In addition to supporting research and development to increase SAF production and promoting investment in green technologies, key aspects of the program include:

• Mandatory SAF blending targets:
  Airlines operating in the EU must use a blend of conventional kerosene and a minimum percentage of SAF which gradually increases over time (e.g. 2% by 2025, 6% by 2030 and 63% by 2050).

• Focus on advanced SAF:
  To avoid conflicts with food and water supplies, the regulation focuses on SAF from advanced, non-food-based feedstocks and synthetic fuels produced with renewable energies.

• Reducing aviation emissions:
  The EU obliges airlines to use SAF to ensure decarbonization of aviation as part of the Green Deal and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Key insights

SAF can offer an important advantage: it is a drop-in fuel, meaning it can be used in existing aircraft and infrastructure without requiring significant modifications. This has the potential for immediate emissions reductions from current fleets and should therefore not affect air traffic.

SAF must meet stringent sustainability criteria to ensure that the transition to SAF is both environmentally and socially responsible. Sustainability criteria include:

• No deforestation or competition with food production

• Limited water consumption

• Reduced CO₂ emissions over the life cycle

For the latter point, the basis is the use of raw materials that either absorb CO₂ during production, recycle it from waste, or remove it from the atmosphere. This CO₂ removal offsets combustion emissions. In addition, SAF can offer advantages such as improved fuel performance, less particulate matter and potentially less contrail formation.

Powering aviation sustainably: How SAF is made

Different raw materials and different technologies are used to produce SAF. The most common types and processes include:

Hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) is the most common biofuel, due to its advanced technology and cost efficiency, and is made from vegetable oils, used oils, tall oil, fatty acid distillates and animal fats. This is done by removing oxygen through hydrodeoxygenation and adjusting the hydrocarbon chains. The end product can be transported, blended and used as aviation fuel. However, production is constrained by the limited availability of waste feedstocks – enough for about 5% (approx. 5 billion gallons) of aviation fuel demand.

• Water use: High

• Land use: High

• Scalability of feedstock: Low

Alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) fuel is a biofuel based on ethanol or isobutanol derived from agricultural feedstocks such as corn, sugarcane, or switchgrass. Using a five-step process, the alcohol molecules are converted into hydrocarbons that resemble conventional kerosene:

1. Alcohol production:
   Obtaining alcohol from biomass, agricultural waste, or industrial carbon dioxide
2. Dehydration:
   Removing water to create unsaturated hydrocarbons such as ethylene or isobutylene
3. Oligomerization:
   Forming longer-chain hydrocarbons suitable for kerosene
4. Hydrogenation:
   Removing impurities with hydrogen and ensuring kerosene specifications
5. Fractionation:
   Separating the hydrocarbons into specific fractions that meet aviation fuel requirements

While corn is currently primarily used in this SAF production, interest in alternative feedstocks such as bio-waste, including agricultural residues (leftover stalks, straw, leaves after harvest) or forestry residues, is growing. Although their processing is more complex and costly, they offer lower emissions and reduced resource consumption.

However, the limited availability of this waste (approx. 50 billion gallons of SAF per year – assuming full receipt of these waste-based raw materials) requires additional raw materials for higher demand. In addition, ATJ is still in the research and development phase which means its commercial viability has not yet been tested.

• Water use: High

• Land use: High

• Scalability of feedstock: Medium

Gasification converts carbon-rich materials such as biomass or municipal waste into syngas, which in turn is processed into SAF by catalytic processes. Gasification is one of the lowest emission processes and allows the use of a wide range of feedstocks, including those that are difficult to process with other methods. However, the amount of waste available is only sufficient for about 50 billion gallons of SAF annually – assuming this SAF production receives all relevant raw materials.

• Water use: High

• Land use: Medium

• Scalability of feedstock: Medium

Power-to-liquid (PtL) uses renewable energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen is processed with captured CO₂ – extracted from the atmosphere by direct air capture (DAC) or from industrial emissions – into syngas, which is then converted into long-chain hydrocarbons using the Fischer-Tropsch process and finally refined and upgraded to SAF. Although PtL fuels are more expensive and energy-intensive than other processes, they are considered forward-looking and are based on almost unlimited waste feedstocks.

• Water use: Low

• Land use: Low

• Scalability of feedstock: High

Opportunities and challenges of SAF

SAF has the potential to offer environmental benefits like reduced greenhouse gas emissions, improved air quality, and opportunities for economic development and new jobs. It could be a valuable tool in slowing climate change. However, several challenges hinder widespread adoption:

• Early development:
  The SAF ecosystem is still in its early stages of development. 2023 production volumes represent only a small fraction (0.2%) of total aviation fuel usage. Further testing and monitoring is crucial to identify and mitigate any long-term effects of SAF on engine components and materials. However, this nascent stage could present a significant opportunity for investment and innovation in SAF production technologies, infrastructure and feedstock development, potentially creating new markets and jobs.
• Costs:
  The high production costs associated with SAF are a significant barrier to its broad implementation in the aviation industry. SAF is currently significantly more expensive than fossil kerosene. It is expected to gradually become more affordable in the long run, but scalability will most likely keep SAF prices high for the foreseeable future.

• Availability:
  The production capacity for SAF is still limited and cannot meet demand. It is estimated that even with optimized use of waste materials and non-food biomass, global biofuel production could only cover a fraction of the demand for aviation fuel.

• Sustainability of raw materials:
  SAF is intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants compared to conventional fossil fuels. However, if the raw materials used for SAF production are derived from unsustainable sources, the environmental benefits could be negated. For instance, the use of feedstocks that compete with food production or deplete water resources could lead to adverse ecological consequences, such as deforestation and biodiversity loss.

If air traffic continues to increase, the demand for aviation fuel will also increase. The production of SAF should therefore expand significantly to make a meaningful contribution to reducing emissions from air traffic. The following figures illustrate that we are still in the early stages: Although SAF production doubled within one year, reaching over 600 million liters (0.5 million tons) in 2023, this only covers 0.2% of global kerosene demand. To achieve net-zero emissions, SAF would have to contribute 65% of the emission reduction in the aviation industry, which will require approximately 450 billion liters annually by 2050.

The focus is therefore on PtL. This process could be the key to sustainable aviation fuels, due to its theoretically unlimited scalability. If technological progress succeeds in reducing costs, PtL could revolutionize aviation. However, PtL relies on renewable energy to ensure the process is sustainable and effectively reduces greenhouse gas emissions; this dependency requires massive investments in its development and supporting infrastructure. Whether PtL actually decarbonizes aviation will depend on whether sufficient renewable energy is available and whether other sectors are not prioritized.

An insurance perspective 

The aviation industry stands at a critical juncture. The ambition of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 demands a major shift towards more sustainable practices. While promising, SAF still faces challenges related to cost, scalability and feedstock sustainability. 

The insurance industry has the potential to contribute to efforts in navigating this shift. 

Insurers can facilitate the growth of the SAF market by developing specialized insurance products that address the unique risks associated with SAF production, transportation, and utilization. This could include coverage for new technologies, supply chain disruptions, and liability tied to incidents involving SAF. 

Furthermore, the transition to SAF will require significant innovation.   

Companies like Twelve, founded in 2015, are at the forefront with their electrochemical process that mimics photosynthesis, using renewable energy to convert CO2 and water into syngas—a key component for fuels and chemicals. This enables the production of drop-in fossil fuel alternatives without costly infrastructure changes.

Munich Re Ventures, the venture capital arm of Munich Re, has recognized the potential of this technology. The early investment in 2020, based on Twelve’s promising technology, strong leadership team and early commercial pilots with major corporate partners, has proven prescient, as Twelve has since secured significant funding and begun building its first commercial demonstration SAF facility.  

“What impressed us about Twelve was their unique position at the time as one of the few companies pioneering technology capable of transforming captured carbon dioxide into economically valuable products.” says Timur Davis, Director at Munich Re Ventures.

Committing to SAF reflects a broader industry trend: insurers are increasingly recognizing the importance of supporting sustainable technologies and the transition to a low-carbon economy. This includes not only financial investments but also the development of specialized insurance products and risk management solutions tailored to the unique challenges of the SAF industry. 

A forward-thinking engagement is essential for the insurance industry to not only manage the risks associated with the SAF transition but also contribute to a more sustainable future for the aviation sector and the planet.