Munich Re estimates claims burden from earthquake in Japan at around €1.5bn

Munich Re provisionally estimates that its claims payments for the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan will total some €1.5bn (after retrocession and before tax). As a result, its profit target of around €2.4bn for the financial year 2011 can no longer be maintained.

This initial loss estimate is based solely on modelling. Owing to the extent of the destruction, further possible aftershocks and difficult clearing-up operations, it will be many weeks before the losses are assessed and all the claims notifications from Japanese primary insurers have come in. As many reinsurance covers do not attach until very high losses have been sustained by individual cedants, it will only become apparent at a later stage whether and to what extent reinsurers are affected by losses under particular treaties. Further uncertainties result from the impact on international flows of goods and supply chains from business interruptions suffered by Japanese industrial producers.

For Munich Re, the first quarter of 2011 had already been marked by high losses from the earthquake in New Zealand, the floods in Brisbane and Cyclone Yasi in Australia. Now including the projected losses from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the major-loss burden from natural catastrophes amounts to over €2.5bn (after retrocession and before tax), thus far exceeding the volume to be expected for this period. That means the profit target for 2011 of around €2.4bn is no longer achievable.