18 January 2012

Global economy 2012: Euro crisis putting the brakes on the economy

Munich Re adopts a guarded view of the macroeconomic outlook for 2012: the growth of the global economy will slow down in 2012 as uncertainties remain very high. However, inflation is expected to slow down due to weaker global growth and only moderately increasing commodity prices.

Munich. Munich Re’s economic experts anticipate a downturn in the economy during 2012. Developments in Europe will be a significant obstacle for global growth. A further escalation of the euro crisis would place an additional burden on the economy. In conjunction with the continuing high level of risk aversion in the capital markets, this could lead to a severe recession that would also have global consequences. Another risk is the high level of uncertainty surrounding US fiscal policy. China's risks are in its high real estate prices and the potential increase in loan default rates, combined with the resulting danger of a sharp decline in growth. An ongoing risk for growth and inflation is the potential for commodity price shocks caused, for example, by political developments. Nevertheless, there is light at the end of the tunnel: if in the course of the euro crisis politicians succeed in quickly restoring confidence in the capital markets, the economy could produce positive surprises in 2012.

Munich Re clients can access the full Economic Outlook with details of the macroeconomic parameters for 2012 exclusively in our client portal » connect.munichre.